The July 4th betting weekend provides a wealth of opportunities for the West Virginia sports betting crowd.
Horse racing has delivered some monstrous payouts from live events at Hollywood Casino at Charles Town Races and Mountaineer Park. Charles Town runs Thu-Sat and Mountaineer Sun-Tue, all 7 p.m. first posts.
NASCAR returns with the Big Machine Hand Sanitizer 400, Sunday at 4 p.m. on NBC.
The PGA Tour is back with the Rocket Mortgage Classic, running Thursday through Sunday on the Golf Channel.
The big wow: West Virginia horse racing
The return from Covid-19 has been remarkable for both Mountain State live horse racing tracks.
Big fields and low-level claiming races form conditions that yield big payouts. This is a good area for WV horse bettors to get their feet wet. Finding the right longshot is difficult, but these races often pay.
Last Sunday at Mountaineer featured a $ 1 superfecta of more than $16,000 and another just shy of $12,000 in the second and fifth races.
Congratulations to anyone who combined Thisaintjumpstreet at 13-1 atop 10-1 shot Get Sassy and 8-1 choices Lady Kim and Carolyn in Race 2. The $1 trifecta also paid well at $722.
Then there was the 20-1 shot Funny Slam atop 5-1 choice Cyclone Betty, 2-1 favorite Hot Spur Harriett and 20-1 pick Go Placidly in the fifth. Besides the big superfecta, the $1 trifecta also paid well, at $618.
What did the races have in common? They were both claiming level $4,000 and they both had 10-horse fields.
Hollywood Casino at Charles Town also delivered lucrative surprises to bettors last week.
Thursday, the $1 superfecta returned more than $26,000 in the final race. There was no easy angle, of course, but the opportunity was there because of the low claiming level, $5,000, and the 10-horse field. A tip of the hat if you were in the same zip code as this finishing order.
Suave Juan won the finale at 14-1 followed by Deputy James at 20-1, Bro Latte at 9-2, and W V Rocket Man at 20-1. The $1 trifecta returned more than $1,900 and the $1 superfecta paid more than $26,000.
Why it paid well: No clue! One consistent variable that night was the middle of the track, which we’ve discussed before. The number 4 post won three consecutive races and the 5 post delivered the big-race victory. If you were on that angle, you were at least in the ballpark.
Charles Town has many six and seven-horse fields set for Thursday, with a nine-horse finale. Payouts may not be as large, but handicapping will be a little easier.
Top drivers remain consistent at NASCAR
Kevin Harvick at +400 and Denny Hamlin, +500 are the DraftKings Sportsbook favorites, as expected, for the Hand Sanitizer 400.
Other notables are:
- Kyle Busch +550
- Brad Keselowski +250
- Joey Logano +750
Harvick and Hamlin waged a thrilling duel last weekend at Pocono PA.
They took turns defeating each other on successive days when NASCAR had rare back-to-back Cup Series events. This weekend, they are on to Indianapolis.
The cream continues rising to the betting top.
Harvick and Hamlin have three wins apiece. Brad Keselowski has two triumphs.
Chase Elliott, Martin Truex Jr., and Ryan Blaney have one.
Current driver standings:
- Harvick, 581 points
- Hamlin, 529 points
- Keselowski, 514 points
- Elliott, 510 points
- Joey Logano, 500 points
- Elliott leads the pack with five stage wins
- Ford leads the manufacturers’ standings
Updated manufacturer standings are:
- Ford, 559 points
- Toyota, 527 points
- Chevrolet, 502 points
PGA Tour: Will Hatton Produce?
Last week, we mentioned England’s Tyrrell Hatton as a solid player returning this week and suspected he’d have under-the-radar odds.
Well, he’s back and the +1400 third choice to win the tournament, +300 for a Top 5 finish, and +150 for a Top 10 at DraftKings.
At FanDuel Sportsbook, he is +340 for a top 5 and +185 for a top 10 finish.
Hatton is a good value if you agree he’s a consistent player. It’s a boom or bust bet, with the reasoning that he’ll come back strongly from the one-week break.
Bryson DeChambeau is the favorite at +650. He finished a strong sixth last weekend, only four lengths behind the winner, Dustin Johnson.
Webb Simpson is + 1100 to win. He withdrew from last week’s tournament after a family member tested positive for coronavirus but has reported back with good health news.
How difficult is this tour to handicap? The favorites have not been winning.
There are some excellent props at WV online sportsbooks ranging from order of finish to Top 5’s, Top 10’s, and individual matchups.
A good handicapping tool is to follow golfers week to week. If they finish just off the top group they might still be playing well and obtain a price the following week.
For me, that makes Hatton a bet at +185 in the Top 10 and -120 in the Top 20. This formula worked out a couple of weeks ago with Sungjae Im finishing in a tie for 10th.
Regardless of what style makes you comfortable, study enough events, and patterns will emerge that give you a strong feeling.